Agriculture is an activity that is highly dependent on climatic factors. This means that climate change can affect agricultural production in several ways.
In recent harvests, the phenomenon that has determined climate change in the country has been "La Niña". Now, in a natural sequence, meteorologists indicate that the “El Niño” effect will promote changes in the Brazilian climate.
But to avoid being caught off guard by the impact of El Niño on their crops, farmers need to adopt specific technologies to help their production, from the use of more resistant varieties to management applications.
A stronger El Niño in 2023: what can farmers expect?
All the world's meteorological institutions indicate, in their climate models, that we are heading towards the end of La Niña and the projection, with high probability, of establishing an El Niño event, which tends to start from the second half of 2023.
Specifically for Brazil, El Niño will have important but already known impacts, as some Embrapa Digital Agriculture researchers explain in a conversation with the Agrishow Newsroom.
According to the researchers, the main and best known impacts of El Niño on the Brazilian climate are on the rainfall regime in southern Brazil, the eastern Amazon and the northern Northeast. It is also possible to verify effects in the Southeast and Midwest regions.
In general, rainfall is above the normal climate pattern, with the greatest impact in spring, in the south, southeast and center-west, and below normal in the east of the Amazon and north of the northeast region.
"In most of Brazil, El Niño usually brings benefits to summer crops, such as soybeans, and concerns about the control of ear diseases and technological quality in wheat, especially in the southern region", they illustrate.
The important thing, according to the researchers, is to know how to harness the positive side of this phenomenon and, through good crop management practices and integrated risk management, to deal with potential adversities and avoid them.
Risk management: essential to address climate change
Climate is the main environmental factor associated with the variability of productivity in agriculture and, consequently, of Brazilian agricultural production, especially for dry farming systems, which occupy the majority of production areas in Brazil.
In this context, Embrapa Digital Agriculture researchers explain that climate risks with the potential to cause significant or total losses in production can be divided into two groups:
- Related to extreme events, such as low and high temperatures, intense rainfall, hail and strong winds, among others; and
- Related to cumulative events, such as prolonged droughts, temperatures that limit growth for long periods of time, etc.
As a solution to these climate changes, the researchers point to the importance of effective climate risk management in agriculture.
For them, the management of climate risks in agriculture involves the coordinated implementation of different strategies, such as:
- Risk assessment for informed decision-making, including monitoring and rapid response systems;
- Risk reduction: planning, preparation and adaptation, including strategic diversification, infrastructure projects and training;
- Financial instruments, mechanisms for sharing, grouping and transferring risks, dynamic rules for allocating resources.
Essential technologies for rural producers
Agricultural production and, consequently, the food security of the population depend on a balanced ecosystem. But every day, the farmer has to deal with climate change, which requires him to adopt different strategies.
In this sense, technology and the solutions it offers are the great partner of the agricultural agents.
According to Embrapa Digital Agriculture researchers, there are many technologies that serve this purpose, among which the following stand out:
- Better genetic basis of the new cultivars introduced for cultivation in Brazilian territory. "These cultivars have greater adaptability to environmental conditions, general resistance to diseases and pests and greater yield potential";
- Designing more resilient production systems;
- Soil and water conservation management practices (for example: no-tillage systems, crop rotation and diversification);
- Good farming practices, especially with the use of more efficient equipment to exploit the resources of each production environment, with the help of digital agriculture.
"All this is complemented by strategic risk management tools that help rural producers and all agents involved in the production process to make better decisions", they add.
ZARC – the main technology for climate risk management
Without a doubt, ZARC (Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning) is an important risk management technology made available to public agents, the financial system and, above all, to rural producers.
ZARC is a tool that guides to the times of cultivation of agricultural species where there is less risk of loss of productivity due to spatiotemporal variations of the climate.
But for Embrapa Digital Agriculture researchers, such actions represent only a first “step” in a whole process. "Building a more resilient and risk-managed agriculture will undoubtedly require ongoing, continuous action", they point out.
The researchers also point out that agriculture is constantly changing. "Technology is changing, genetics are changing, production regions are changing, and the climate is changing".
In addition, not all crops had their Zarc studies updated, such as Conilon coffee, pineapple, açaí, irrigated beans, among others. Some other recent crops or production systems do not yet have any Zarc studies, such as potatoes, tomatoes, lentils, peas, among others.
In addition, it is essential to enable the implementation of methodologies that differentiate levels of management (ZarcNM) and levels of expected productivity (ZarcPro) in the PSR and Proagro Programs, until they reach full operability.
"This requires a continuous research effort to improve and correct the methodology and standards of these programs, as well as a joint effort to enable the training and qualification of users and technicians", the researchers suggest.
ZARC Plantio Certo - simplifying and democratizing access to ZARC studies
Developed by Embrapa Agricultural Informatics (which became Embrapa Digital Agriculture in November 2021), ZARC Plantio Certo is a technology of great value for producers to be able to develop their projects based on climate change.
According to the researchers, Plantio Certo was designed with the purpose of simplifying and democratizing access to ZARC studies.
"It is a digital tool that allows producers and other stakeholders to consult the planting windows and risk levels, when by selecting specific parameters such as: municipality, crop type, soil type and crop cycle".
When browsing the application, the user is presented with several risk rates (20%, 30% and 40%) related to potential losses due to adverse weather conditions.
These rates are associated with the respective planting seasons and cover 43 different crops in all municipalities of the national territory.
The app also provides access to more detailed information about the weather conditions recorded both before and during the development of the crop.
As a result, this tool is extremely beneficial to growers on several fronts:
Minimize Losses
Farmers can avoid significant losses associated with adverse weather events by planning planting according to the local climate.
“By choosing a planting date that minimizes the risk of adverse weather conditions, farmers can improve the likelihood of a successful harvest,” the researchers explain.
Optimize production
The app helps farmers maximize productivity by planting at the best time for a given crop. By understanding weather patterns and how they affect plant growth, farmers can optimize the yield of their crops.
Financial Planning
Knowing when it is safest to plant can help farmers plan financially by giving them a better idea of when to expect yields and therefore cash flow.
It can also be useful when applying for crop insurance and making investment decisions.
Sustainability
By following climate-based planting guidelines, farmers can reduce unnecessary use of inputs (such as water and fertilizers), promoting more sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture.
It is important to note that ZARC Plantio Certo also displays the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is a measure that evaluates the quantity and quality of vegetation in a given area based on the reflection of sunlight on plants from the last three harvests.
Finally, as you have seen, climate change and El Niño are present in our agriculture and we cannot change them.
Therefore, the great challenge for research institutions and farmers is to create the capacity to adapt crops, either through genetic change, with advanced biology, or through new management practices that make our agricultural systems more resilient to climate variability.
That is, there is no other way, the way will always be the constant monitoring and continuous use of technology.
*Embrapa Digital Agriculture researchers: Santiago Vianna Cuadra, Gilberto Rocca da Cunha, Jose Renato Boucas Farias, Silvio Roberto Medeiros Evangelista and Jose Eduardo B de Almeida Monteiro.
